Iran is going nuclear and European Union mediation
will fail, Israeli spy chief Meir Dagan told
then U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine, according
to a cable disclosed by Wikileaks. The disclosure
coincides with the bombing assassination of an
Iranian nuclear scientist
that Iran attributed to Israel and
the United States.
Meir, in the 2005 discussion, referred to disagreements
between U.S. and Israeli intelligence analysts,
but the substance
of those disputes was not disclosed.
The document, once marked secret, appears to
have been declassified on March 15 of this
year. Curiously, the date March 15, 2005, is
found on media copies of the document but did
not appear on the copy I made of the Wikileaks
material.
Meanwhile, Israel Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz
conceded that the Wikileaks disclosures had done
Israel no harm, while Premier Benjamin Netanyahu
said that it was apparent that Israeli leaders
were far more candid than Arab leaders.
From the Wikileaks site:
This record is a partial extract of the original cable.
The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001580
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG IR IS COUNTERTERRORISM GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: MOSSAD CHIEF TO CODEL CORZINE: SOME FOREIGN
FIGHTERS BEGINNING TO LEAVE IRAQ
Classified By: Pol/C Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).
¶1. (S) Summary: Mossad Chief Meir Dagan told CODEL Corzine
March 13 that Israeli and U.S. thinking on Iran largely
tracks, adding that he believes the EU dialogue with Iran
will ultimately fail. Dagan said that Israel has evidence
that some foreign fighters have returned home from Iraq,
perhaps indicating that the tide may be starting to turn in
the U.S. battle against the insurgency there. He worried
however, that these militants' countries of origin -- in
particular Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Sudan -- are
ill-equipped to control the returning jihadis, who might then
pose a threat to stability in the region and, ultimately, to
Israel. End Summary.
----
Iran
----
¶2. (C) Senator Jon Corzine, accompanied by Senate staff
member Evan Gottesman, the Ambassador, Pol/Res and Poloff
(notetaker), met with Mossad Chief Meir Dagan March 13.
Acknowledging that there are at times differences in analysis
of the facts, Dagan stressed that it is similarities rather
than differences that are at the heart of the GOI-U.S.
intelligence relationship, particularly on Iran. The facts
themselves are not in dispute, Dagan continued, adding that
the U.S. and Israeli assessments of Iran's intentions and
plans are largely in accord. Iran has decided to go nuclear,
Dagan said, and nothing will stop it. Dagan predicted that
the EU dialogue with Iran will not succeed and that the issue
of Iran's nuclear ambitions would eventually go to the UN
Security Council.
-------------------------------------
Iraq - Foreign Fighters Heading Home?
-------------------------------------
¶3. (S) In response to the Senator's question, Dagan said
that the tide may be starting to turn in Iraq with regard to
foreign militant activity. Dagan said Israel has evidence
that foreign fighters originating from Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan, Syria and Yemen have arrived back in their home
countries, and he assumes that some had returned to Saudi
Arabia as well. Dagan predicted that, as with men who fought
in Afghanistan during the 80's and 90's, these returning
militants would stay in touch with each other, forming a
network based on their common experiences in Iraq.
¶4. (S) Stressing that Israel has no assets in Iraq other
than a friendly relationship with the Kurds, Dagan said that
Israel's interest is more in the impact the jihadis from, for
example, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, will have once they return
to their countries of origin. Although he predicts Egypt and
Jordan will "do all right," Dagan said he is less confident
that governments in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Sudan
are sufficiently well-equipped to face down the domestic
challenge these returning militants will pose. The
combination of their military training and the absence of
strong governments willing and able to confront these men
could have a devastating impact on Israel by causing chaos in
their home countries, he added. Dagan predicted that these
jihadis will have less of a direct impact on Palestinians,
because Palestinians are already well aware of militant views
and opinions via Internet chat rooms. Furthermore, Dagan
said he feels that most Palestinians are not searching for
"foreign flags," such as al-Qaeda, under which to rally,
because those inclined to do so are already being
well-mobilized under existing groups in the West Bank and
Gaza.
-------
Lebanon
-------
¶5. (C) Dagan opined that Hizballah will never make the
transition to a purely political party in Lebanon, since the
organization remains very dependent on its jihadi
orientation. Noting that even the recent
Hizaballah-sponsored march in Beirut has not deterred the
Lebanese from pressing for a full Syrian withdrawal, Dagan
advised the U.S. to remain firm in its demand for a complete
pullout, and attributed the willingness of the Lebanese
people to rise up to U.S. action in Iraq.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
Essential to Use All Assets in the Fight Against Terrorism
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶6. (C) Dagan said it is essential to combine all types of
intelligence assets, rather than relying exclusively on human
intelligence or signal intercepts, to counter terrorist
threats. Terrorist organizations have been seeking to obtain
WMD as a matter of course and, unlike countries that wish to
acquire these weapons as a deterrent, non-state actors would
be more inclined to actually use them, in Dagan's opinion.
Asked about the relationship between illicit activities such
as narcotic or arms trafficking and terrorism, Dagan
confirmed that terrorist organizations try to fund their
activities by criminal means, adding that credit card fraud
and counterfeiting are also methods favored by these groups.
Weapons originating from Yemen and Sudan are smuggled into
the territories through Egypt for sale, as well as for use by
militants, Dagan said.
¶7. (U) CODEL Corzine did not have an opportunity to clear
this message.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
KURTZER
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